Filibuster Nostalgia?

Think the Republicans don't like the filibuster now? Remember last year when Majority Leader Frist and other Republicans supported the idea of the "nucler option" but they were foiled by that McCain guy? Now that Republicans are in the minority, McCain looks like a genius to Republicans. The Democrats have only 51 seats, and will need 9 Republican senators to join them in cutting off debate to block a filibuster -- and that is only if no Democrats defect to supporting the filibuster. The Gang of 14 is now the Gang of 12, since Republican senators Mike Dewine and Lincoln Chaffee were defeated Tuesday. Of course, with the new situation, I'm sure the Republicans will easily find 2 more members to join the group if need be!

In other news, Dennis Hastert will no longer be among House leaders...

Visit my Math for Economists class!

Here is a short video from tonight's Math for Economists class. Here the professor is working an example of an optimization problem with multi-variables and multiple constraints using Lagrange Multipliers. Most of the class is usually theoretical and derivations of theorems, with a few numerical examples. This is one of those cases.



Last week, I mentioned my professor's statement that many mathematicians believe in God or some higher power. Well, tonight as he scrolled up the chalkboard, we found writing from the prior class. This time several Old Testament books of the Bible were recorded: I Kings, Judges, etc. He then told us about a law in Tennessee where they have legislated that pi be equal to 3 (and not 3.14159..) because the Bible states in I Kings that it should be 3. Actually, I Kings 7:23 says the following: "Now he made the sea of cast metal ten cubits from brim to brim, circular in form, and its height was five cubits, and thirty cubits in circumference." So based on this verse it seems the circumference divided by the diameter is 30 / 10 = 3. The professor also referred to a law in Indiana where there was a law setting pi to be 22/7 based on their belief in the Bible. Out of curiosity, I did some searching on the web. This is what I found about the law:

It appears the Tennessee pi law is an urban legend which began as an April Fool's joke in 1998. As for the Indiana law he mentioned, a Pi Bill was proposed in 1897 but never passed. However, it does not appear to be religiously based at all. I couldn't find any evidence of it, anyway. It seems the law proposed either using 3.2 or 4 for pi, not 22/7.

One website I found defended the Bible in I Kings. It says that because pi is 3.14159 that since the circumference was really 30 cubits then the diameter mentioned in I Kings should have been 30/3.14159 = 9.54, not 10. That website claims that the circle's circumference was measured on the inside of the circle but its diameter was measured from the outside of the circle. It says that if the circle had a width of 0.23, the inner diameter would have been 9.54 but the outer diameter would have included the width on both sides, adding 0.46. This would result in an accurate measuremment in the outer diamenter of 10. "Evidence" for this is found in I Kings 7:26 - "It was a handbreadth thick." I'm not sure I buy this explanation though. My guess is that during that time measurements were not so exact plus they probably weren't trying for an exact figure but one that is rounded. Anyway, "pi laws", as far as I know, have never been passed in America. Stories stating so are just urban legends.

Donald is gone...

Why did Donald Rumsfeld wait until now to resign? Why not do so 6 months ago? Perhaps he and Bush want it to appear as if they are in control and his leaving was not due to criticism from Republicans and Democrats. But had he left earlier, it might have saved several seats in Congress.

Well, the voters have spoken in yesterday's midterm election. It looks like the Democrats will control the house by a 232-203 margin and will control the Senate by a 51-49 margin. There were some surprising upsets as well as some races where an upset appeared likely and the incumbent held on.

I calculated these numbers assuming that the candidate currently with the most votes will win. CNN still has not called 11 races yet. I think 7 of those are callable, but I will admit that these 4 are still very close....
Connecticut 2 - Courtney (D) leads incumbent Simmons (R) by about 170 votes.
North Carolina 8 - Hayes (R) leads his opponent by about 450 votes.
Wyoming 1 - Cubin (R) leads her opponent by about 900 votes.
Pennsylvania 8 - Murphy (D) leads incumbent Fitzpatrick (R) by about 1,500 votes.

At this time, it looks like the GOP will win OH-2 Schmidt (+2,300), WA-8 Reichert (+2,700), PA-6 Gerlach (+3,000), OH-15 Pryce (+11,300), and TX-23 where Congressman Bonilla faces a December runoff. He received 48% yesterday. I think Democrats will win GA-12 Barrow (+3,300) and the winner of LA-2's runoff in December. Scandal-plagued William Jefferson received the most votes yesterday, but it will be interesting to see if he can survive the runoff.

Other interesting news....in Michigan, voters approved restrictions on affirmative action, basically reversing the Supreme Court's 2003 ruling. And in Arizona...voters rejected a ban on gay marriage (the first state to do so), while making English the official language in its state. The funniest of all ballot initiatives? Arizona proposed giving a random voter $1 million for voting in future elections. That failed.


I hope to comment more later when I have time.

Visit my Applied Stats class!

While Democrats were anxiously watching returns and celebrating Northup's defeat and shocked at Shays' win tonight, I was in class at NYU. Interested in econometrics? Here is a short video of my class tonight. Here the professor is talking about a one-tailed test in hypothesis testing. If you want to learn more you can visit this UCLA website.

Chinese Monetary Policy

On Friday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the equivalent of the Fed in the US, raised the bank deposit reserve ratio from 9 to 9.5%, increasing reserves at banks. This is the 3rd time this year China's central bank has performed this kind of monetary policy, and it will, in effect, decrease the amount of excess liquidity. Interest rates have also been hiked twice since April.

Game Theory Midterm Exam

Tonight I had a game theory midterm exam. Here are the first two questions (which were also the two easiest)...

1. "Competitive Bidding" Suppose two identical consulting firms (McKinsey & Boston Consulting Group) compete for the same client (Coca-Cola, Inc.) for which they propose to provide advisory services related to a possible merger. Each firm has an equal and constant marginal cost to provide the consulting services, c. Firms make competitive bids, simultaneously, to the client indicating the price at which they will provide the consulting work, b. The client will choose the lowest bid. If firms offer the same bid, assume they both expect to win the client with equal probability of 1/2 each. (a) Depict a strategic form game for this scenario. (b) Draw the best responses for both firms on one graph. (c) Identify all Nash equilibrium outcomes. (d) Now assume that firm one is more efficient than firm two so that if it wins the client, it will receive c1 < t="0,1,2,....">5, and
Q=q1+q2.
C1=1 and c2 = 3.

(a) Depict this industry in Extensive Form as a dynamic game. (b) Find a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium for this game. (c) In your equilibrium, which firm will exit the industry (produce no product) first? What is the logic behind this result?

Now suppose the firms face the same declining demand and have the same marginal cost c1 = c2 = 1, but each can only either produce a fixed quantity (firm 1's q=2, firm 2's q=1).

(d) Find a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium for this game. (e) In your equilibrium, which firm will exit the industry first? How does the result compare to that in (c) above?

Math & Religion

Tonight I had my Math for Economists course. It begins at 6:20pm each Wednesday evening. A sociology class meets in the classroom before we meet. Tonight, after the professor had filled up one board with mathematical formulas, the professor pulled down the sliding chalkboard to use the one underneath it. That board mentioned Jehovah, God, Elohim, priests, etc. Our professor said (paraphrased) "well maybe this does have something to do with economics.....actually, you know, a lot of mathematicians love math because it is so pure, so exact, and it is so beautiful....many mathematicians do believe in a higher power or God simply because math exists and it is so perfect." This quote was paraphrased but was very close to what he said. Despite being at a liberal northeastern university, I guess there are still teachers who break from the liberal mindset. I do not know for sure how my professor feels about religion, but I can tell that he is more conservative. From his discussions about economics, I do think he is more a follower of the Chicago school of thought rather than holding a purely Keynesian view. As far as what he said about God, I couldn't agree more. Mathematics is a truly amazing discipline, and I agree that it in itself proves the existence and reveals the glory of God.

All Saints Day

Hope you have a happy All Saints Day! (November 1).

Trick or Treat? Deluge!

Today is Halloween. I came home from class tonight to find neither a trick nor a treat. I found water pouring out of the ceiling in the hallway.



That's not good, because I live in the basement! Fortunately, my apartment was not that wet -- only the first foot inside the apartment by the door and the kitchen area. My napkins, paper plates, oatmeal, and towels were drenched in water. I called the landlord's maintenance guy and he came over right away. After searching for about 15 minutes and making several phone calls, he was able to get the water cut off. We also discovered the problem -- an upstairs toilet inside the Phobia Life Line had a leak:



My apartment does not really have any damage, but it is inconvenient to have the floor wet but no water in the pipes!

Halloween!

This afternoon, Washington Square Park on NYU's campus had games and candy for small children.



There was a big parade tonight on 6th Avenue and so the subway stop where I usually catch a B train home was completely packed with people:



Craziness! As I pushed towards the subway, it got more and more crowded! So frustrating - especially when I found that subway stop was shut down due to Halloween! So I slowly made my way over to Union Square to catch a Q train home.

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, my cousins children got all dressed up. Here's Luke (age 2.5) on his horse:



Here's Luke's younger brother John (about 5 months):



Here's Catherine (about 5 months):



Aren't they cute!

Return of the Hillbillies

Well, my grandparents and parents flew back home this afternoon. I took them out to JFK and waved goodbye as they went through security at about 2:30 pm. We've been busy up here! After church on Sunday, we ate lunch at the Peanut Butter Company where we had an Elvis.



Then we saw the campus of my university, New York University, where Will Smith is currently filming the movie "I am Legend."



Following that, we went out to look at Shea Stadium (where the Mets play) and Arthur Ashe Stadium (where the US Open is held). For dinner, we ate at a Pete's Italian restaurant underneath the Brooklyn Bridge with a nice view of the Manhattan skyline. On Monday (yesterday), we saw the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island in the morning.



Then we took a bus from lower Manhattan past the World Trade Center site, Chinatown, Little Italy, Union Square and midtown. Along the way, Grandma made a friend on the bus. After taking lots of photos from the top of the Empire State Building...



...we swung by Macy's and then headed back to Brooklyn. We ate supper at a nice restaurant near my apartment which brought each of us a ton of food - unlimited bread and appetizer, soup, salad, main course (meats and vegetables), and desert.



None of us made it through the main course -- some not even through the salad. This morning we took the Staten Island Ferry from the tip of lower Manhattan past the Statue of Liberty over to St. George on Staten Island. We then took some buses to reach Coney Island,



a beautiful sandy beach in southern Brooklyn which is about 3 miles from my apartment. While there, we stopped by Nathan's, famous for its hot dog eating contest each July 4. We did see a lot in four days! Just hope we didn't tire my grandparents out too much!


It does look like they were enjoying themselves on this subway, but I do realize climbing all those stairs are hard on the old folks! Aren't they cute? OK, now I have to study for my Game Theory midterm....

At the Tabernacle

Yesterday, my grandparents, parents, and I attended church at the Brooklyn Tabernacle.



We were able to worship God with about 2,000 others. The church was a blend of many races -- A black family sat to our right, a Korean family sat in front of us, and an Hispanic man sat behind us. During the service, a missionary from Haiti spoke as well as a group from Western Michigan's Teen Challenge. One of the speakers was from western Kentucky. Here is one of the songs they sang.



Here is the chorus: Holy, Holy, Lord God Almighty! Worthy is the Lamb who was slain! Highest praises, honor and glory... be unto your name! Be unto your name!

Democrats love the Lord!

Democrat Congressman & Senate hopeful Harold Ford speaks about religion. Watch the following clip where he implies that Democrats "love the Lord" while Republicans do not...



What role should religion play in politics? What role should politics play in religion? At the end of the clip, Mr. Ford says, "you're supposed to act it out" -- meaning that you should act on your faith and love for God. I think he is referring to the general perception of the public that Democratic leaning charities focus more on helping the homeless and ending poverty, while Republican leaning ones typically focus more on abortion. Republicans and Christian conservatives should, I think, be more observant of the need and compassionate toward the poor, especially those belonging to minority groups. Poverty is an issue, and if we as conservatives really care and love our neighbors, we should be trying to devise solutions to help rather than ignoring the problem. However, Mr. Ford crossed the line with his speech. There are many Republicans who have a genuine love for God, and most evangelical Christians have voted for the Republican candidate in the past few presidential elections. Mr. Ford was wrong to compare -- only God knows what is in our hearts. Despite my disagreement with Ford, I do realize that all of us, including myself, sometimes do stick our feet in our mouths.

To be fair, I should also mention the consistency of Mr. Corker's Iraq policy. Prior to the Republican primary, he said the US should "stay the course" in Iraq. Now in the general election, he is backing off that position -- even claiming he has never used that phrase. In my opinion, Corker did not intend to lie but probably forgot saying the phrase previously. I think his position on Iraq is not one of deep interest to him and he does not have a clear policy in his mind. Thus, I believe, it is easy for him, now that it is October, to forget what he said in July. Regardless, he did use the phrase which President Bush has now stopped using in reference to Iraq policy.

Brooklyn Hillbillies!

On Friday morning, my grandparents and parents flew up to the Big Apple to visit me. This was the first time that my grandparents, who have visited all 50 US states, had ever been to NY City. I picked them up at JFK and brought them over to a hotel near my apartment. Actually, the hotel is really just a house in a residential area which has converted its rooms into hotel rooms. On Friday, we visited Castle Clinton National Monument, Battery Park, the American Stock Exchange, the site of the World Trade Center 9/11 attack...



...Trinity Church and its cemetery with the graves of Robert Fulton & Alexander Hamilton (of VP Aaron Burr duel fame), Wall Street, the New York Stock Exchange, and Federal Hall, the first US capitol where Washington was inaugurated on April 30, 1789. Federal Hall contains the stone Washington stood and the Bible he put his hand on during the ceremony. On Saturday, we saw St. Patrick's Cathedral, 5th Avenue shopping district, Rockefeller Plaza, the NBC tour with a view of the studios where Dateline NBC, Nightly News with Brian Williams, and Saturday Night Live are filmed. For a few minutes, we actually got to see the SNL crew rehearse the show that aired tonight.



After leaving NBC, we ate Thai food at Bangkok House on Restaurant Row (46th St), and then visited Yankee Stadium and Times Square. I don't have a car here, so we've ridden a bus and lots of subways - the 3, B, D, E, M, Q, R - and done lots of walking! I've been working them pretty hard. My grandparents, are after all 82 and 79 years old! But they are holding up pretty well, depsite all the stairs in the subways that they aren't used to climbing. They'll be here until Tuesday -- so we'll have more to see!

The Wilder Effect

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article about minority candidates in close races. Some call it the 15% lie. Others call it the Wilder Effect. The idea is basically that when a pollster calls people on the phone to ask whom they will support in the election, some people will tell the pollster that they will support the minority candidate (even though they will really support the white candidate) just because they do not want the pollster to believe they are racist. For example, consider the Tennessee Senate race where democrat Harold Ford, an African American, is running against republican Bob Corker, who is white. If a democrat who is white receives a phone call from a pollster, he may feel the pollster is judging him as racist if he claims to be a democrat who is also supporting Corker. As a result, minority candidates typically underperform their poll numbers in the general election. In a famous race in November 1989, democrat Douglas Wilder, an African American then serving as Virginia lieutenant governor, ran for governor against Republican attorney general Marshall Coleman. Exit polls (face to face interviews after voters leave the voting area) during the day of the election showed Wilder ahead by 10%. In the end, Wilder won the race by only 0.38%. Why were the exit polls so wrong? Most assume it was the "Wilder Effect" at work -- which may be even stronger in face to face interviews (versus telephone surveys). This year, the "Wilder Effect" may be witnessed by democrat Harold Ford in the Tennessee's senate race, republican Michael Steele in the Maryland senate race, and Kenneth Blackwell in the Ohio governor's race.

Just to be clear - the "Wilder Effect" does not occur because voters are racist. It occurs simply because they do not want to appear as racists to the interviewer. I'm guessing this effect may not be a factor in uncompetitive races - such as Alan Keyes disastrous Illinois senate campaign in 2004.

Cards make history

The St. Louis Cardinals jut won the World Series, an amazing feat considering they only won 4 of their final 14 games of the regular season to end the season with an unimpressive 83-79 record. Just about a month ago, I wrote saying they might choke in the central division race with Houston. Perhaps it helped that they were playing the Detroit Tigers, who, in the regular season, had won just 19 of their last 50 including their final 5.

Muslims not responsible for 9/11 attacks?

Over the past month, I've been very busy with doing homework and studying for midterms. But I have found time to attend a few events on campus - the College Republicans, the Diwali dinner put on by the Hindu Student Council, etc. Tonight I dropped in on a meeting after my class finished. A female student was reading poetry and sharing her opinions about her faith as a Muslim in a large room full of students, most of whom were also Muslim. During her speech, she mentioned, "I do not believe that Muslims were responsible for the 9/11/2001 attacks on the World Trade Center." Wait, what? My first reaction was to look around the room to measure the response and outrage at her comments. There was none. I was a little outraged. I consider it a well proven fact that the hijackers on the planes were Muslims. I stayed for a few more minutes to listen as she read a poem about her emotions and feelings about September 11th.

I needed to catch one of the last B trains so I left after her poem. To be fair, I have no idea how her speech concluded. Anyway, as I was riding home, I reflected on what she had said. I think many non-Muslim Americans might have been offended by the student's claim. However, I tried to put myself into her shoes. What if Christians had been blamed for the terrorist attacks? Or what about abortion clinic bombers who have all claimed to be Christian. What about the Holocaust? Hitler claimed to be a Christian. But many Christians today would claim that Hitler was not really a Christian - that he just claimed to be for political purposes and the version he practiced was really a Nazi-manipulation. And I'm sure that is how this girl at NYU feels. She takes great pride in her faith because, according to her, of its love and peace, and perhaps she feels that the 9/11 hijackers were not true Muslims in their faith and actions -- only using the affiliation for al quaeda's own purposes. I had never considered this possibility before. Perhaps this is the truth, or perhaps this girl is completely wrong. Regardless, I now have a deeper understanding of how American Muslims might feel about 9/11. This is one good reason to try to walk a mile in someone else's shoes before criticizing them. It helps you better understand where they are coming from. (The other reason is that if they are angry after you criticize them, at least they will be 1 mile away and barefoot!)

Chinese Automotive Industry

Many US companies are earning profit in China. US corporate profits in China passed $2 billion in the first 2 quarters of the year. In 1999, only 57% of US firms were profitable in China. In 1999, only 0.1% of Chinese owned automobiles. In 2004, it was 2.2%. GM is leading in the auto market, as its sales climbed 36.7% from January to September to 645,000 vehicles. The top 4 car companies in China based on units sold are GM, followed by Volkswagen, Hyundai, and Toyota. Prior to 2005, Volkswagen was the leader in China. GM was able to reach the number one position by forming joint ventures with domestic firms that make minivehicles. Despite getting a late start in the Chinese market, Toyota, now #4 in units sold, is expected to overtake GM between 2008 and 2010.

Race in Michigan

Remember Jennifer Gratz? After being denied admission to the University of Michigan law school due to her race (white), she appealed to the US Supreme Court to rule on race in admissions policy. Now she and Ward Connerly, an African-American businessman who helped pass bans on affirmative action in California and Washington, are fighting for a Michigan ballot initiative against affirmative action in Michigan.

Affirmative Action tends to divide Republicans and Democrats along party lines. While I am against the use of government forcing others to discriminate based on race, I think Republicans do need to be more sensitive to racism and the disadvantages that many minority Americans face in our nation. Greater attention (and money) should be invested into reducing the racial gap in the educational performance of young children. Those, including myself, who wish to end affirmative action, need to propose and actively support other means to end racism and make the playing field more equal for all Americans.

I am Legend

All of my classes at NYU are at night. For the past week, Washington Square, the large public square about which NYU is located, has been lit up and full of the crew filming Will Smith's new movie, "I am Legend." It has been interesting to see the crew working, despite the inconvenience it causes with some sidewalks being blocked off. And, no, I haven't met the fresh prince of Bel-Air yet.

Check your Facts...

Don't believe everything you see in political ads. Both sides really twist the truth a lot. One site you can use to check for accuracy is Fact Check. While the site may have some bias, it does criticize both Republicans and Democrats for twisting facts. Here are some examples where one party accuses the other by twisting and/or making up facts.

Democrats accuse Republicans of voting to raid the Social Security Trust Fund

Republicans accuse Democrats of aiming to shrink benefit checks

Make me ugly!

What a strange story from the China Daily - a Chongqing woman is asking plastic surgeons to make her ugly.

A young woman from Chongqing sought plastic surgery to make her face less attractive recently, after being crossed in love. The 23-year-old woman's sweetheart left her weeks ago to stay with another woman. Although the two had been in love for six years, her ex-boyfriend feared that her too-beautiful face might lure many other men and thus he didn't feel safe staying with her. She came to hate all men after being courted by many others, prompting her desire for the surgery. But the doctors refused to co-operate, saying she had a mental disorder and needed to seek help from psychotherapists.

Freedom of Religion with Chinese characteristics

"Giving away Bibles for free is a crime in China, according to a verdict recently handed down in the case of a House Church leader. Pastor Wang Zaiqing, a prominent Chinese House Church leader in Anhui Province was sentenced on Oct. 9 to two years in prison on the charge of 'Illegal Business Practices,' and fined 100,000 Yuan ($12,500.00). In addition, all the books in his home, and the funds used to print them, were confiscated. Pastor Wang was crippled at the age of 5. He became a Christian in 1993, and later became very well-known House Church for preaching and starting House Churches in several provinces around Anhui Province."

Wang Zaiqing's story brings up interesting ethical dilemmas, especially for a Christian. Should one always obey the commands of the government? China does allow for freedom of religion, but it is limited in that one may only publicly exercise this right in a government sanctioned houses of worship. Privately, one may carry on his/her religious beliefs inside the home. So the question arises, why does Wang see the need to disobey Chinese government officials? Why not just worship God in one of the government sanctioned churches? I know that most (if not all) of the leaders in the Chinese church are really followers of Christ. I met one while living in China. She was educated at a seminary in America, and her faith was real. So why not follow the rules?

On the other hand, the Chinese government does restrict religious practices. One cannot worship freely. You cannot start your own church without a permit. Most sanctioned churches only allow the use of a piano, but most do not allow the use of other musical instruments. Churches sing songs from a sanctioned hymn book, so pastors or music directors cannot introduce new songs each week. Some churches appear to be limited in the number of songs they can sing. Is this truly freedom of religion? No, it is not. Perhaps the Chinese government believes it is, but at best you can only call it Freedom of Religion "with Chinese characteristics".

When should people follow the laws of their government? The Bible commands us to respect political leaders. However, is there ever a time when civil disobedience is justified? Yes, just look at Bonhoeffer and others in the German resistance movement during the time of the Holocaust and the Hitler regime in Germany. I think most would agree that was an appropriate time. And obviously, Chairman Mao Zedong believed civil disobedience was appropriate in the 1940's. George Washington believed in it during the 1770's. And, it appears, Pastor Wang believes today is also an appropriate time. What do you think?

Enron's Skilling gets 24 Years

CNN reported yesterday that Former Enron CEO Jeff Skilling is going to jail:

Jeffrey Skilling was sentenced to 24 years in prison Monday for his role in the fraud at Enron that brought down the nation's seventh-largest company and came to stand as a symbol for an era of corporate fraud in America...More than 4,000 Enron employees lost their jobs - and many their life savings - when the company declared bankruptcy in December 2001. Investors lost billions.

This is good for markets, as investors will have more confidence in the ability to prosecute wreckless managers. I wonder how this will effect the midterm election? Since Bush and the GOP previously got hammered on their ties to Enron, will voters interpret this as Bush's buddies are going to jail? (Actually, Bush was friends with Kenneth Lay, not Skilling.) On the other hand, will people give the Bush administration credit for cracking down on these corporate crooks and restoring confidence in investors? A third possibility - voters are clueless and won't consider this at all!

Sacked Statistician

"China's top statistician was sacked after anti-corruption investigations implicated him in the Shanghai pension fund scandal, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday....More than 100 central government anti-corruption investigators have descended on Shanghai in recent months to investigate money reportedly drained from the city's 10 billion yuan ($1.25 billion) social security fund for illicit loans and investments....The probe led to the dismissal of Chen Liangyu as Shanghai Communist Party boss last month. Chen was the first member of the party's 24-member decision-making Politburo to be sacked since 1995 when Beijing party chief Chen Xitong was purged and jailed for corruption. The two Chens are not related."

Democracy, Tibet Style

Xinhua news is reporting that Zhang Qingli, a Shandong native who recently worked in Xinjiang, has been "elected" secretary of the "Communist Party of China (CPC) Committee of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Recently Mr. Zhang spoke with the German SPIEGEL Magazine where he claimed that the 1989 Nobel Peace Prize recipient Dalai Lama has "deceived his motherland" and "did many bad things later on that contradict the role of a religious leader." When the magazine metioned that "The Dalai Lama enjoys a great deal of sympathy in America, Europe and in Asia, also because the Chinese Communist Party is not particularly democratic," Zhang did not comment about the issue. Is a man who only speaks "a few words of Tibetan," well qualified for the job?

The Economy, stupid!

In Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign against former President Bush, James Carville put a sign up with 3 points on it, the second of which read "the economy, stupid". Well, finally finally the Republicans are going to shift focus from Iraq to the economy. I don't know why they haven't talked this up so far. The stock market is at an all time high, inflation is in check, unemployment is below 5%, and the economy continues to expand at a good pace. Of course, maybe political strategists believe that it is easier to get someone to vote out of fear of terrorists than due to economic numbers.

Speaking of reminding voters of terrorists, watch this new Republican ad:


Some Democrats are saying the GOP is just exploiting Osama for political purposes. They have a counter ad:



The election must be close!

Controversial new Bible

"A new Bible translation is causing controversy after it cut out difficult parts surrounding economic justice, possessions and money.The new bible version, released by the Western Bible Foundation in the Netherlands, has created a storm by trying to make the Christian gospel more palatable. "

Rest in Peace, Wang Guangmei

Wang Guangmei, the widow of former People's Republic of China President Liu Shaoqi died on October 13 and a funeral was held for her today. She worked with her husband after their marriage in 1948. According to Wikipedia:

After the establishment of the People's Republic of China, Liu worked mainly in economic areas. An orthodox Soviet-style Communist, he favoured state planning and the development of heavy industry. He was therefore skeptical about Mao's Great Leap Forward movement which began in 1958. Alerted by his sister to the developing famine in rural areas in 1960, he became a determined opponent of Mao's policies. In the wake of the Great Leap Forward's catastrophic failure he replaced Mao as Chairman of the People's Republic, and began to be seen as Mao's likely successor. His more moderate economic policies help to lead China from the depths of the Great Leap Forward. Liu Shaoqi favoured the introduction of piece work, greater wage differentials and other measures that sought to undermine collective farms and factories.

Half way through the 1960s, however, Mao rebuilt his position in the Party and in 1966 he launched the Cultural Revolution as a means of destroying his enemies in the Party: Liu and Deng Xiaoping, along with many others, were denounced as "capitalist roaders." Liu was labeled as a "traitor", "scab", and "the biggest capitalist roader in the Party". In July 1966 he was displaced as Party Deputy Chairman by Lin Biao. By 1967 Liu and his wife Wang Guangmei were under house arrest in Beijing.

Liu was removed from all his positions and expelled from the Party in October 1968 and disappeared from view. Only after Mao's death in 1976 was it revealed Liu had been confined under terrible conditions in an isolated cell in Kaifeng, which led to his death from "medical neglect" (untreated diabetes and pneumonia) in 1969.

In 1995, the "Project of happiness - Help Impoverished Mothers" was officially launched under Wang Guangmei's guidance. Thanks to her efforts, the project has raised 310 million yuan (39.9 million U.S. dollars) to relieve 154,000 rural mothers and households from poverty, benefiting 695,000 people.

Rest in Peace.

Purpose Driven Theological Questions!

I got to chat online this morning with a friend of mine who has started a weekly study of the Purpose Driven Life. She has only been to church a few times in her life, and I'm glad I was able to help hook her up with the class. Anyway, now she has many questions for me! Here's a sampling of the questions we discussed in our chat this morning...

- I want to ask you a question: I was told that our life is not an accident--it was actually planned by God before we were born but there are babies dying every day because of the Sudden Infant Death Syndrome. if God plans those babies to come to this world, then why didn't he stop it from happening?

- then when do you think God will intervene what is happening to us? for example, I heard people in the real world received God's healing power

- God promises that our life is eternal. in this case in order to go to Heaven after death, people would choose to have faith in God when they are dying--they might be really really bad when they are alive. then is it fair for those who believe in God for their lifetime and do good things everyday and pray every day?

She's a very smart & inquisitive girl.

CNN loses respect

Some say CNN has a liberal bias. I'm not sure if that is always true, but I will give them credit for stupidity. CNN has a new "news story" on their web site about the '08 Presidential election:

"Asked if they preferred Hillary Rodham Clinton to McCain, respondents gave the Democratic New York senator and former first lady a 51 percent to 44 percent advantage over the Republican Senator from Arizona. Remove 'Rodham' and McCain had a 1 percentage point advantage, 48 percent to 47 percent. The results fall within the sample's margin of error, so there is a 'good chance, but not a statistical certainty' that Clinton's maiden name would help her in a matchup against McCain, said Keating Holland, CNN's polling director."

What a stupid poll. If there were consistent results that were outside the margin of error it would be useful. I would be willing to guess that most people know that Hillary Clinton and Hillary Rodham Clinton are the same person.

CNN loses respect by even running this "story." "If presidential elections were held today, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would likely have a comfortable edge over Sen. John McCain." -- If you average the two polls she leads McCain 49% to 46.5%. That isn't a comfortable lead at all!

The entire story about the "rodham" is just stupid (other than the interesting poll numbers). She consistently uses "Rodham" and will if she runs in 2008. It's a moot point. Why not ask people if they would vote for George Bush if he changed his name to "Santa Claus"? I'm sure there would be some small difference in the numbers. But it would be ridiculous to write a story about it.

From Foley to Foley

My thoughts on the upcoming midterm election. The Repulicans will lose the House. The question is, by how many seats will they lose? Probably between 16 and 35. The Republican Revolution of 1994 began with the fall of Speaker of the House Foley and will end in 2006 with a different Foley ending the reign of the current Speaker.

The Senate? That's a tossup. Republicans effectively control it now 55-45. Democrats will pick up seats in two "blue" (Democratic-leaning) states -- Rhode Island (Chaffee will lose to Sheldon Whitehouse) & Pennsylvania (Santorum will lose to Bob Casey). They will also pick up seats in at least 2 "red" (Republican-leaning) states -- Montana (where Conrad Burns is struggling in overcoming with his ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff and will likely lose to Jon Tester) and in Ohio (where Sherrod Brown will defeat Mike Dewine, the innocent victim of voter unhappiness with Republican scandals).

Assuming those four are a done deal, to take the Senate, Democrats will need to win 2 more races because the Vice President will break ties in a 50-50 Senate. They have good opportunities in Missouri (Talent-McCaskill) and Tennessee (Corker-Ford) to do just that. The Senate races in Virginia and Arizona are also close but lean GOP. I think the Republicans will hold the Senate but give Democrats a 40% chance of taking over the Senate.

Democrats should enjoy the next few weeks. Enjoy the victory on November 7th. Abramoff, Delay, Ney, Cunningham, Scooter, Foley, and Bush's Iraq policy have helped. Democrats have earned this victory - in the last few years they have been the least unethical party.

However, the good news for the GOP is that one year from now this election along with Abramoff, Delay, Ney, Cunningham, and Foley, will be history. Bush will be in his "last throes" as a lame duck, and the electoral college does aid the Republicans in electing Presidents. Coming off a victorious election, the Dean faction will be fired up to nominate a liberal like Feingold and conservatives will be more willing to compromise in order to win by selecting Guiliani or McCain (both of whom will be somewhat difficult to peg as Bush-Republicans).

The other positive news for conservatives - Casey & Whitehouse have very similar positions on abortion as do Santorum and Chaffee. Many of the House challengers are former Republicans or hold very conservative views. Obviously it is great for the Democrats to have power and set the agenda, but the next Congress will have more conservative Democrats in it (Ford if he wins in Tennessee, Maloney in Florida, Davis in NY, etc.)

If the GOP holds the Senate and saves Bush from a lot of vetoes, then the Republicans will not be in that bad of shape for '08.

Rebuilt Chinese History

Many ancient sites in China were destroyed during the "Liberation", the Cultural Revolution or other dramatic event, only to be reconstructed in the 1980s or 90s. For this reason, many tourist sites in China claim to be thousands of years old, but upon arrival the site appears to be brand new.

Beijing's Old Summer Palace, or Yuanmingyuan, which was in use during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) is currently being considered as a new candidate for reconstruction. I had the opportunity to visit the Old Summer Palace and see its ruins in November 2004. I disagree with reconstruction. I think it would be acceptable to build a museum on the premises to show visitors what the structures used to look like, but I hope the government does not touch the ruins lying there. It is one of the few (non-Buddhist cave) sites in China where you actually feel you are seeing something from the dynastic periods. Even the Great Wall at Badaling, just outside of Beijing, feels recently reconstructed.

Memphis Man on the Street

The Republican National Committee has started running a new ad in the neck and neck Corker-Ford race:



Corker has condemned the ad and asked them to stop running it. What do you think about it?

From an entertainment point of view, I think it is great. Perhaps I'm biased by my support for Corker. But does it cross the line of unfair attacks on Congressman Harold Ford? What is the ethical standard for running ads? Does this cross the line?

Previously, Corker did run an ad about Ford which, while not lying, did omit some key facts about Ford's record on national security. Both parties engage in this type of "truth telling" to educate undecided voters. There's definitely a problem, but how do we reform it?

Christian Politics

David Kuo, former second-in-command of President Bush's Office of Faith-Based Initiatives, has released a memoir about how his White House experiences left him disillusioned about the role religion can play in politics. Kuo, who I believe is sincere in his conservatism and his faith, wrote, "George W. Bush, the man, is a person of profound faith and deep compassion for those who suffer. But President George W. Bush is a politician and is ultimately no different from any other politician, content to use religion for electoral gain more than for good works. Millions of Evangelicals may share Bush's faith, but they would protect themselves—and their interests—better if they looked at him through the same coldly political lens with which he views them."

Freedom of Golf?

In August I visited the beautiful campus of Xiamen University. Now the Washington Times is reporting the school is requiring all business and law students to learn to play golf!

"Golf classes start in two months and also will be required for economics and computer software majors, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing university president Zhu Chongshi. 'The aim is to help the students find good jobs," a sports professor at the school, Chen Xiao, was quoted as saying. "Many Chinese business deals are clinched on golf courses.'"

Midterm Exam - Math for Economists!

Tonight I had a Midterm Exam in my Math for Economists class! I did ok but I probably did make a few stupid mistakes. Here are three of the questions from the exam:

#2) Use Matrix Algebra to solve the following model:
Y= C + I + G
C=a + b(Y-T
I=c +dY +eR
where Y=income, C=Consumption, I=Investment, G=Government Spending, T=Taxes, and R=the Interest Rate. Also a>0, 1>b>0, and 1>d>0. Treat Y, C, and I as endogenous and T,G, and R as exogenous variables. a,b,c,d, and e are simply exogenous coefficients. Use the implicit function theorem to determine the impact of a change in R on each of the endogenous variables.

#6) The value of a tree is given by the following expression V(t) = 2 ^ sqrt(t) where ti s time and r is the discount rate. The present value is V(t) = 2 ^ sqrt(t) * e ^ -rt. What is the optimal time to cut down the tree (the point at which the present value is maximized?

#7) Write Total Costs function as TC=TC(Q) and Average Costs as AC(Q)=TC(Q)/Q, and use calculus to demonstrate that the Marginal Cost Curve intersects the Average Cost Curve at the minimum point of the Average Cost Curve.

Pau grad students now online

Fifteen graudates of Tianjin Foreign Studies University (TFSU), where I taught during the past two years, were accepted to pursue a Masters in Enterprise Administration in Pau France this year. Many of them are good friends of mine. They left China in late September but did not get Internet access from the university until today! So slow. Anyway, now you can see some of their photos on Pan Ke's blog.

Tax Madness in the Big Apple

Since I was living in China last April 15 when taxes are required to be filed, I got a six month extension on paying my taxes. Because October 15 was a Sunday, the tax deadline was Monday, October 16. And, of course, as a procrastinator, I waited until the last minute! There were some headaches in figuring it all out. I own some funds which invest in Sweden (EWD), Germany (EWG), and Japan (EWJ). These funds all paid taxes in foreign countries, and as a result I can get a discount off my taxes in America. But the process is more complicated than it should be and was more difficult this year because I had lived in China during 2005. I did report all of my income earned in China and also had to report the apartment I lived in at TFSU as indirect income. OK, so how much is that worth? It's really subjective, but I reported it at 1200 RMB (US$150) per month or $1,800 for the year. Fortunately, for tax purposes, in 2005 I only spent 16 days in the USA (August 4-August 19). This qualified me to get the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion.

Finally, I finished my taxes, but since it was after 5 PM, I only knew of one post office in New York City that would still be open in order to get the postmark of 10/16. I figured the later I went the less busy the post office would be. So I took my taxes to the 8th Avenue at 31st Street post office in Manahattan at 10:30 PM. I was shocked to find the place was packed full of people holding envelopes in their hands with the words "Internal Revenue Service" on them! I guess when you consider that few people e-file in New York and that this is the main 24 hour post office in the largest city in America, it shouldn't have been such a shock. Anyway, it seems you can't just mail your package and leave if you want the postmark after 7 PM. We all had to stand in a long line and get postmarked one at a time -- and at a fee of 95 cents per package. I had to wait about thirty minutes to get my postmark.

From Annan to Ban

When Kofi Annan steps down as head Secretary-General of the UN at the end of the year, he will be replaced by South Korean leader Ban Ki-Moon, age 62. Depsite having about 65% of the world's population (and a high percentage of the world's major military conflicts in recent years), Ban will be the first Secretary-General from Asia in 35 years. Moon's term will last for five years.

How will his appointment affect US and South Korea's negotiations with North Korea? With many possible military conflicts in Asia (Pakistan-India, China-Taiwan, North Korea-South Korea), Iraq/Iran, Palestine-Israel), will the world be better served with the UN being headed up by an Asian?

Peace to Yunus

Bangladeshi microcredit pioneer Muhammad Yunus and his Grameen Bank were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for their work in advancing economic and social opportunities for the poor, particularly women. The economist and the bank he founded will share the prize. They were cited for their efforts to help "create economic and social development from below" in their home country by using innovative economic programs such as microcredit lending.

Grameen Bank has been instrumental in helping millions of poor Bangladeshis, many of them women, improve their standard of living by letting them borrow small sums to start businesses. Loans go toward buying items such as cows to start a dairy, chickens for an egg business, or mobile phones to start businesses where villagers who have no access to phones pay a small fee to make calls.

Wiki in China

It seems the GREAT online interactive reference site Wikipedia has been UNBLOCKED in China after previously being inaccessible. I guess we'll see how long this lasts. Last year when I was there, I was never able to access it. Even Hotmail was blocked while I was there, but there were several ways to access it indirectly. This is promising news. China has been censoring the web for some time, even employing some college students to be involved in the censorship. The arrest and incarceration of Liu Di, a psychology major at Bei ShiFan, made the world aware of how serious the Chinese were about censorship in 2002. China may be lacking in the amount of freedom we have in America, but it has been making progress since 1978 thanks to the leadership of Deng Xiaoping. I have great hope for the Hu Jintao government.

Nick & Laura's Wedding

I just got back from a wedding in Louisville, Kentucky, where my cousin Laura just got married. It was the first time I had ever met her husband Nick. I had a good time in Kentucky with my family. I flew down on Friday and back home today. Here are some photos:

My mom has 36 more photos of the wedding here online.

Tragedy at the Nepal Border

BBC is reporting that policeman Steve Marsh was resting at a camp on the Tibetan side of the Himalayan peak of Cho-Oyu at the beginning of the month when he saw border guards shooting dead a Tibetan refugee in a group trying to flee to Nepal. He spoke of his shock at the incident, which he said scores of other mountaineers also witnessed. Tibet welfare groups say the Tibetan who died was a young nun, and add that a boy might also have been killed. Click the link to watch the video.

North Korea Nukes & TV

On October 9th, North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported the country had performed a successful underground nuclear test.

MAD TV has a parody of Kim Jong-Il with his own TV show. On his show, he shows guest Donald Trump his version of the Apprentice:

GOP delays Jesus' Plans

According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, a Houston pastor is claiming that Republican foreign policy is delaying Jesus' Return:

Voters should oust congressional Republican leaders because U.S. foreign policy is delaying the second coming of Jesus Christ, according to a evangelical preacher trying to influence closely contested political races.

K.A. Paul railed against the war in Iraq on Sunday before a crowd of 1,000 at the New Spirit Revival Center in Cleveland Heights, his first stop on what he hopes is a 30-city campaign.

The Houston-based preacher said he believes that the Bush administration has delayed the second coming because U.S. foreign policy has blocked Christian missionaries from working in Iraq, Iran and Syria.

I thought Jesus' return was going to be like a thief in the night (I Thess 5:2), not based on US foreign policy. I wonder if this will have an affect on the turnout of evangelical Christians this fall. Paul has a large following but is not well-known in the USA. He did previously counsel Saddam Hussein, and met and prayed with Speaker Hastert following calls for Hastert to step down for mismanaging the Foley-page crisis.

Deja Vu?

Quick quiz: It's the 11th of the month. On a warm autumn day, people panic as a plane crashes into a tall building in New York City. What day is it? 9/11/2001? That would work, but so would TODAY! Yes, today NY Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle gave the whole city a big scare when he flew his small plane into a luxury apartment building, killing himself and another passenger. Fortunately, no one else died.

The scary thing is it was so "easy" for him to jump in an airplane in New Jersey and fly over Manhattan. What would prevent terrorists from doing the same thing? In a response, figher aircraft were put into the air above several major US cities. The quick response is good, but what are we doing to stop the first plane from hitting?

Chinese Etiquette

The Chinese government, in preparation for the coming Olympic games, has been trying to improve the behavior of its population. During this past National Day holiday (the first week in October), some tourists visiting Tian'anmen Square during the holiday received a text message on their mobile phones from the administration committee of the Tian'anmen region to remind them to protect the environment of the square. However, on October 1 alone, around 600 sanitation workers collected 39.8 tons of garbage from the square." At the Old Summer Palace some tourists were found drawing on the relics. However the government is trying and we should give them credit for that. "Education in manners and etiquette has been strengthened in some kindergartens and primary schools in China. But experts believe it may take several generations to nurture civilized behavior and form a positive image of Chinese tourists."

I know from my experience in China that some places are worse than others. I found Dalian and Xiamen to be very clean and, in some areas, very Western. My worst experience was in the Inner Mongolia capital of Huhehaote (also known as Hu Shi). Perhaps I visited it on the wrong day (it was May 7, 2005), but it was extremely windy and trash and dirt were blowing everywhere. To be fair to China, I also encountered trash on the street in some areas of Detroit when I lived in Michigan. Of all my travels, the city with the most trash on the street was Gaya (India) near the tourist destination Bodhgaya. That was just awful.

Econometrics Midterm

Well, tonight I had my first midterm exam at New York University. It was in Econometrics and Applied Statistics. The exam wasn't too bad, but I know I missed a 1-point question about moment-generating functions. It was easier than I had expected. The test had 16 questions worth 1 point each and then 12 questions worth 7 points each. Here is the easiest of the 7 point questions:

You will draw balls without replacement out of a container containing 3 blue and 5 red balls. What is the probability of drawing a red ball on the third draw?

Columiba Prof wins Econ Nobel

Columbia University professor Edmund Phelps on Monday won the 2006 Nobel prize in economics for pioneering work on the relationship between employment and inflation, which has influenced central banks around the world. Phelps, 73, is the first solo winner of the $1.37 million prize since 1999.

During the 1960s, Phelps built on what is known as the Phillips Curve, which held that when unemployment fell, there was a one-time rise in the rate of inflation.

Phelps felt that view didn't take into account the fact that consumers and businesses operate with incomplete information. He theorized that inflation depends on unemployment and expectations for future inflation.

As a consequence, the long-run rate of unemployment is not affected by inflation but only by the functioning of the labor market. Cutting interest rates or taxes to stimulate employment works temporarily, but can lead to higher inflation.

Further, policies that promote low inflation today will produce lower inflation expectations, aiding policymaking in the future. Phelps also looked at economic trade-offs, showing that deferring consumption in the short run to fund research, education and other business investment can improve economic conditions in the longer run.

Zhong Qiu Jie Kuai Le!

Today is the Mid-Autumn Festival (Zhong Qiu Jie in Chinese). The date is based on the lunar calendar (8th month, 15th day), and it also known as the Moon festival or the Lantern festival in other Asian nations. In China, we ate lots of mooncakes. I've seen a few here in New York. We do, after all, have almost 400,000 people of Chinese ancestry living here!

I have a mideterm in my statistics class on Tuesday. I went to ask questions of the teaching assistant this afternoon. She told me she is a 5th year Ph.D. student from Shenyang. She almost fell over when I told her I was familiar with the capital of Liaoning province and the big Mao statue there. Anyway, she had to leave early for a Mid Autumn Festival party. Afterwards, I went over to look for free food on campus! I did discover an all-Korean party celebrating Ch'usǒk (the Korean name for Mid-Autumn festival), but I didn't go. Anyway, for the first time since 2003, I didn't eat any mooncakes on Mid Autumn day.

Chaos at Columbia

Last Tuesday, I received an email from the NYU College Repulicans that invited us to go to a speech at Columbia:

"3. Columbia has invited us to the event below. There will be a huge
protest so it would be nice to have a strong showing. E-mail me your name
by 9am tomorrow if you want to go.
Columbia students host The Minutemen and founder, Jim Gilchrist, for
their pre-election forum: “Defending America’s Borders”"

I didn't go, and it seems I missed a national event! If you haven't heard, protesters (supposedly from a socialist organization) crashed the speech and knocked over the guest speaker. You can read about the event at FoxNews.



I'm not sure what I think of the Minuteman Project. Honestly, I didn't read the email from the NYU CRs until after the event took place. So perhaps the chaos was good for them to get publicity. Still, shouldn't they be allowed to express their views? What happened to free speech? I never heard of the Minutemen until after this incident. Apparently, they self-patrol the Mexican border with guns. I'm not sure if I agree with that either though.

New York really is an interesting place to live!

Matzah!

As an evangelical Christian from the South, moving to Brooklyn has given me another opportunity to better understand another religious group. I live in a predominantly orthodox Jewish neighborhood in Brooklyn and encounter Jews everyday here. I have no problems with that, as they are friendly. I've encountered different religious groups everywhere I've previously lived - evangelical Protestants in Kentucky (my home state), Catholics in the Midwest, atheists in Silicon Valley, & Buddhists in China. But I don't think I've ever been so shocked before. Not that Jews here do anything shocking -- I'm shocked that I was so uneducated and unaware of their customs. We recently celebrated Yom Kippur here. That's not a big holiday in Kentucky or China, but, in my neighborhood, everything was shut down. When I walked outside to take the subway to class it was like living in a ghost town. The grocery store, the convenience store -- almost all businesses were closed. In Manhattan, the place I usually buy my dinner was open but had no food for sale. Anyway, this week, I searched the Internet and came across the following funny Matzah rap song.



No, I haven't seen anyone rapping in the neighborhood - but I can appreciate and understand some of the things in the song more now after living here. Just so you know, Matzah is unleavened bread eaten during Passover.

Brooklyn Bridge to Midwood

Today I rode the subway up the Brooklyn Bridge and then walked back to my apartment in Midwood, stopping to take photos along the way. Unfortunately my battery ran out of power before I made it home. Below are a few of the photos I took.


This is the famous Brooklyn Bridge, with part of the the Manhattan skyline in the distance.



This is "Kennedy Fried Chicken" which uses red and white in its logo. There are many around the New York City area. Kentucky Fried Chicken claims it is an intellectual property rights violation.



After seeing this ice cream cooler, I was homesick for China!



Here is a building with interesting archictecure near the Dekalb Avenue stop.



The Brooklyn Academy of Music.



This street food vendor also reminded me of China, until I saw his prices!



Pizza by the slice! There are so many stores in the NYC area that sell pizza by the slice for anywhere between $1.75 and $3 per slice.




I also got a few photos of a group of protestors yelling for the US and Israel to leave all Arab lands immediately. The group was yelling many different slogans as they passed.



The protestors had their own protestor! Following behind them, a man held this sign very quietly as he marched in the rear of their group.

Appreciating Chinese Money

Chinese Renminbi (RMB) dropped below 7.90 against the dollar yesterday due to speculation that the government will soon expand the band within which the currency is allowed to fluctuate. The rate was fixed at 8.28 from 1994 until July 21, 2005. It has been slowly appreciating against the dollar ever since. Some economists predict it will appreciate up to 6.5. The US continues to put pressure on China. My Senator Chuck Schumer & South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham continue to back legislation "encourage" China to allow the currency to appreciate faster.

Who's Next?

In this Congress, Republican Representatives Cunningham, Delay, and Ney have all been caught up in scandals. The Vice President's assistant Scooter Libby has been indicted. And now Mark Adam Foley. Who's Next?

Florida Congressman Mark Foley abruptly resigned from Congress today after it was reported that he had sent inappropriate sexually graphic messages to Congressional pages under the age of 18.

The details are still a little bit fuzzy, but I have 3 thoughts on the matter:

1. The instant messages he sent were from account maf54 (mark adam foley, born in '54). Why would anyone send these messages from an account with his name on it?

2. There are conflicting reports as to how much the GOP leadership previously knew about this. If it is discovered that they were aware of the explicit messages and covered this up, it will be the final nail in their political coffins. This scandal is big news because it has the potential to destroy many political careers, not just Foley's.

3. The blog that "outed" Foley is very suspicious. It was set up in July in total obscurity with the stated goal of catching sexual predators. No one knew it existed and no websites linked to it. We are told that somehow several Congressional pages found it all at the same time and provided info on Foley. The website has never "caught" any other predators. Before the Foley story broke, the only information on the site is information copied from other web sites. What information? In August the site owner posted stories about Chandra Levy and other Congressional sex scandals. How conincidental is that? The owner refuses to identify her/himself. Who is behind this? I have no doubt in my mind that the owner of the blog knew about the Foley emails in July when the blog was created. If it is later discovered that some politician is behind this (one would assume a Democrat, but who knows) and held it back as a last minute political surprise before the upcoming midterm election, then it could backfire on them.

Collapse of the Cards?

Are we witnessing the biggest sports team collapse ever?

The St. Louis Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 game and are now 81-76. The Houston Astros have won 8 straight and are at 80-78. Both have 4 games left (Thu, Fri, Sat, Sun).

If the Astros & Cards finish within 1/2 game of each other....
(for example, the Cardinals go 2-2 and Astros go 3-1)

Then St. Louis will have to make up a missed game next Monday against San Francisco.

If they are tied following that game, then they play 1 game playoff on Tuesday in Houston.

Politician Trivia

I've heard several politicians recently make firm statements about Iraq and whether or not the US should set a deadline to get out. I was curious whether or not these politicians are consistent in what they say. I just find it odd that almost all Republicans favor the war and almost all Democrats are opposed. Shouldn't there be more independent thinkers like Joe Lieberman or Chuck Hagel? So I searched around to see what I could find on the Internet.



Do you know who made these 10 Quotes?
(Answers at the bottom... Hint: 4 from Republicans; 6 from Democrats)


A) "If Hussein has chemical and biological agents, and I believe he does, he would have no incentive not to use them then, if he knew he was going to be killed anyway and deposed."

B) "I think it's also important for the president to lay out a timetable as to how long (U.S. troops) will be involved and when they will be withdrawn....Victory means exit strategy and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is."

C) "These arbitrary limits (setting a deadline for military withdrawl) are not going to be helpful."

D) "I cannot support a failed foreign policy. History teaches us that it is often easier to make war than peace. This administration is just learning that lesson right now....There are no clarified rules of engagement. There is no timetable. There is no legitimate definition of victory...There is no clear funding program. There is no agenda to bolster our overextended military. There is no explanation defining what vital national interests are at stake. There was no strategic plan for war when the President started this thing, and there still is no plan today."

E) “We have to be able to convince the American people that this (military action) is in our interest. I don't think you need much of an imagination, though, to know what happens if all of this gets out of hand.…I think we can avoid that with a little preventative medicine. That's what this is all about. It's preventative, and I think it will work.”

F) He "views it (Congress setting a deadline for military withdrawl) as a legislative overreach on the powers of the presidency."

G) "What if someone had listened to Winston Churchill and stood up to Adolph Hitler earlier? How many people's lives might have been saved? And how many American lives might have been saved?...We have to take a stand now. If we don't do it now, we will have to do it later."

H) "In my judgment, it's a question of whether it's wise to set a deadline, and we might as well address that issue first and foremost....Now, if the sponsors of the language in this bill want to strike that deadline, we have a totally different situation. But the deadline is there, it is July of next year, unless Congress changes its mind. That creates between now and then, a very dangerous period of uncertainty and instability, which ...creates danger for our forces, that period of uncertainty is very dangerous because ... (they) are going to seek to arm themselves for the day in which we leave. "

I) (in regards to setting a deadline for military withdrawl) "signs of impatience can be misinterpreted as symptoms of weakness. We cannot afford that in a region where weakness attracts vultures."

J) "whether or not there was an exit strategy. I would take the use of force very seriously. I would be guarded in my approach. I don't think we can be all things to all people in the world. I think we've got to be very careful when we commit our troops. The vice president and I have a disagreement about the use of troops. He believes in nation-building. I would be very careful about using our troops as nation builders."


Obviously, these quotes were cherry-picked. The situation was different (all refer to Kosovo with the exception of Clinton's comment (a) about Iraq). But it is interesting to see what politicians said in the past.

A) President Bill Clinton (D-AR) (September 9, 2003)
B) President George W. Bush (R-TX) (April 9 & June 5, 1999)
C) Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) (Sept 15, 2000)
D) Rep. Tom Delay (R-TX) (April 1999)
E) Seanator Tom Daschle (D-SD) (1999)
F) Scott McClellan, for the Bush campaign (R-TX)(May 2000)
G) President Bill Clinton (D-AR) (March 22, 1999)
H) Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) (May 17, 2000)
I) Sec. of State Madeleine Albright (D)
J) President George W. Bush (R-TX) (October 3, 2000 debate)

The Devil was Here

On the way to class the other night I saw a flyer recommending the city to go protest Bush's speech at the United Nations on Tuesday. I didn't go, but one protester was a day late. Venezuelean President Hugo Chavez spoke at the UN today, calling Bush "the devil".

Since the whole world knows that Chavez is crazy and hates Bush, this was not a big surprise. What was a surprise to me, was Democrat representative Charles Rangel's response when Chavez repeated his sentiments in Harlem. Rangel, known for his criticism of Bush, said, "You don't come into my country, you don't come into my congressional district and criticize my president."

Gallup & the Do Not Call List

On Saturday, September 16, I got a call from a woman working in the Nebraska office of Gallup/USA Today and became one of the 1,003 adults interviewed for their most recent national poll. Most questions dealt with President Bush and the upcoming midterm election, but I was also asked questions about professional baseball's MVP awards. The results of the political poll are available. You can see how much I altered the results.

Ever wonder how they determine whether someone is a likely voter? Here are the questions they asked me (after they asked if I was registered to vote):
1. Do you know where your local voting place is located?
2. Are you registered to vote in the district where you live?
3. Did you vote in the November 2002 midterm election?
4. How much thought have you given to the upcoming election?
5. How likely are you to vote?

I thought it was strange that I got called by Gallup just days after getting phone service established. In the last week that I've had phone service, the phone has rung all the time with people marketing products or asking for donations. It is so overwhelming that I just went and added my name to the Do Not Call List. Ever wonder what the effect of the Do Not Call List is? I'm guessing the few poor folks who aren't on it get bombarded with calls all day. I also wonder how it affects polling? Wouldn't Gallup and other polling agencies be restricted by the DNCL? If so, does that bias poll results at all? If a slightly higher percentage of Republicans or Democrats are on the list, then that slight bias could have an effect on the poll.

Chinese Caution

Many people ooh and aah over the potential market power of China. 1.3 billion consumers. A cheap labor force in the millions. GDP growing steadily at about 10%. What's not to like? You hear reports about how America's day has come and gone and how China will soon overtake the USA.

Hold your horses. China has a good chance to become a major world power, that is true. But it won't happen as fast as many think. Poverty is widespread, most of its workforce is uneducated and unskilled, the legal system is showing promise but corruption is still widespread, and capital markets are young and untested.

Well, just this week we found out Malcolm Bricklin's Visionary Vehicles will be forced to delay the arrival of its Chinese produced Chery cars in the USA. He had been claiming a 2007 arrival date, but that has now been postponed to late '08 or early '09. Starting an automotive company is difficult, as it is a highly capital intensive industry. I seriously doubt the long term viability of Bricklin's cars. I do feel Chinese produced cars will be shipped to the US in the near future due to the cheap labor there, but I think established car companies such as GM, Toyota, and Volkswagen will most likely be the ones to be successful at this. The global automotive industry is already in bad shape. The market is mature, oil prices are rising, the industry has an excess of capacity, profits are dwindling. China will soon be an economic force to deal with, but its days as a fully developed nation are still far off in the future.

Darfur

Over the past week, the NYU campus has been covered by fliers urging students to go to the Save Darfur Rally at Central Park tomorrow afternoon. For those who might know, the region of Darfur in Sudan has been the site of immense violence over the past few years. Some estimate that close to 1/2 million people have been killed and more than 2 million civillians have fled their homes. The rally is being held in order encourage world leaders, specifically US President George Bush and UN Secretary General Koffi Anan to intervene.

This story also has an international aspect relating to China. The Washington Times ran an editorial a couple weeks ago claiming that Darfur is exposing Chinese hypocrisy. China holds enormous leverage over Sudan due to its investment in Sudanese oil fields. And, despite Wang Guangya, China's UN representative to the UN, claim that China supports sending peacekeepers to Sudan, they have been lobbying against the resolution to send in peacekeepers.

Yale PhD runs in McLean

My friend Matt Gunterman, who was my roommate when we studied Chinese history in Kunming China in 1998, is running for Judge/Executive in McClean County. He won the primary with 51% of the vote in a three way race, but faces a challenge in November when he takes on the incumbant. Matt is now pursuing a Ph.D. in history at Yale.

After 18 days, phone & Internet access!

I now have a working phone and Internet access in my apartment! Finally, after much prodding, the phone company Verizon sent someone over yesterday to see why my phone was ringing when people call the number but not working inside the apartment. I set my appointment to be from 1-5 PM because I had class at 6:20 PM in Manhattan and usually leave home around 5:30 PM to go to class. Well, at 5:25 the Verizon phone man still had not arrived yet! I wrote a note to tape onto the outside of my door as I left for class. As I opened the door to walk outside, a man walked up and said, "I'm Verizon. Are you the one with phone problems?" I grumbled, "Yes." I didn't want to show my anger because this was the guy that was going to help, and, I have to admit, I have been late a few times in my life. :) He then asked, "How do I know that you are?" This really made me angry. I just sort of glared at him and then he went out behind my building to "check on things." After about 20 minutes, he told me that he couldn't fix it but would have someone come soon. Thankfully, I was able to leave at 5:45 and still get to class right as it was starting.

Today, nobody contacted me, but I looked outside at 10 AM and saw a Verizon truck outside. I looked and saw a man outside working, and about an hour later he left and my phone worked! So 18 days after ordering phone service I finally get it. That is just pathetic. At least now I don't have to make calls from pay phones and get Internet access from NYU or Internet cafes.

Brooklyn Primary

The current representative in Congress for my Brooklyn neighborhood (NY District 11) is Major R. Owens (D) who won 94% of the vote in 2004, but he's retiring after 24 years. Evidently, he likes to put his political speeches in Congress into rap!

Anyway, we had a primary election in New York yesterday. Few races were competitive - such as Hillary Clinton for senator or Eliot Spitzer for governor. The only interesting race in my district was the Democratic primary for US House to replace Mr. Owens. The district is overwelmingly Democratic in party registration and has demographics of 59% African-American and 32% Jew. In the primary race, three of the democratic contenders were black (one of which was Owens' son Chris), and one was a white Jew named David Yassky, a Brooklyn city council member who moved recently moved to the district in order to be eligible to run for Congress.

The district was created to enable minority representation in Congress (read: elect an African-American) and so some black leaders were really upset with Yassky. Assuming voters only vote for members of the same race: if the 4 black candidates equally split the black vote, each would receive about 15% and Yassky could pull out a victory. Regardless, Yassky was endorsed by the NY Times and his campaign workers were out in force yesterday. At the subway stop near my apartment, one of them asked me to vote for Yassky and gave me some information about him.

Yassky finished 2nd in the primary with 26% of the vote, behind another city council member, Yvette Clark, who had 31%..

Because the district is so overwelmingly democratic, she will be my next representative in Congress. However, she comes with her own scandal: the NY Times reports that she lied about graduating from Oberlin College, claiming she had the degree when she was actually a few classes short.
Unfortunately, she'll probably stay in Congress for the next 24 years.

Boxes from China

Today my mom emailed me and said she received the two boxes of gifts, souvenirs, and other junk that "Bill" Chen Xi and Pan Ke helped me ship back to the US on July 26. I'm glad it made it OK. I haven't seen the condition of the box yet (she said there was a small hole in it), but I am excited that the box is there. Actually, I forgot what I put inside those boxes. I guess I'll find out when I get home for Thanksgiving.

Speaking of shipping boxes to America...In late March, my mom mailed me a package with a gift for my friend Feng Fan, as she is now going to graduate school in Europe. However, I received confirmation that someone else "intercepted" this package and shipped it back to the USA on Monday, April 10. I took photos on my digital camera and the lady in the post office positively identified the culprit. See, too and friends. The gift has not been seen since. :( Sorry, Feng Fan. I admit I have made many mistakes in my life, but revenge belongs to God - not to us. Although I have forgiven the culprit, it was, unfortunately, a bad reflection on this person's character and a terrible witness to students. Just ask Bill what he thinks about it!

It's been 5 years!

Hard to believe that today is the five year anniversary of the terrorist attack of 9/11/2001. Time really flies. Unfortunately for Bush, he's still chasing Osama. The headlines here in New York are all about the fact that five years later the ground zero/former world trade center site is still barren and construction on the new Freedom Tower which is to replace the WTC has not begun.

The Onion wrote a parody about the 9/11 Memorial Hole here in New York. Speaking of The Onion, another funny story in the paper this week is about a Summer Intern Already Forgotten! By the way, until I get Internet access through Verizon DSL at my home, I am using it at NYU. I'm glad it is free but it is very inconvenient!

Phone Tease

Well, I flew back to New York on Tuesday. And I was able to get from LaGuardia to my apartment for $2. Not bad, huh? Especially when you consider that I had 4 extremely large and heavy bags, with a combined weight of about 170 lbs (77 kg)! It was exhausting. After leaving LaGuardia, I took the M60 bus to the Columbus Square subway stop. I was a little nervous that I would stay on the bus and miss the stop for the subway because I had not done this before. Well, after a while the bus stopped and I saw the subway so I got off the bus. After pulling all 77 kgs of bags off the bus and the doors shut, I realized I had gotten off two blocks too soon. Ordinarily that would not be a big deal, but it is difficult to pack your body weight in luggage down the street and up 2 flights of stairs to get onto the subway. Actually, after i got through the turnstyles for the subway, a woman helped carry one of my bags up a few stairs. I then took the N/W line to 57th Street in Manhattan where I caught a Q train to my apartment. The transfer at 57th is great! The soutbound N/W runds down one side of the platform and the southound Q runs down the other. That was convenient. At my stop 2 boys helped me carry 2 of the bags down the stairs to the street. I was really happy my apartment was as close to the subway stop as it is!

I ordered phone and Internet service from Verizon on August 26 and so I expected when I arrived in my apartment on 9/5 that there would be phone service. Ha ha! Today I still have no service. I spent the last three days trying to figure out how to get service turned on. Anyway, last night my mom sent me an email saying that she called my phone and it rang. However, this was just Verizon teasing me. I rushed home to find that the phone does not work. Since I will get DSL Internet service (which works over the phone line) from Verizon too, I am completely cut off in my little Brooklyn basement. No phone, no Internet, and no friends in New York. I am going to call Verizon today and see what's going on.

American Airports

Reed Jarrar, an architect of Iraqi descent, was forced to remove a T-shirt that bore the words "We will not be silent" before boarding a flight to California at New York's JFK airport on August 12. Mr Jarrar said he was shocked such an action could be taken in the US. US transport officials are conducting an inquiry after a complaint from the US Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee.

How much is too much? Should the government force someone to take off a T-shirt before the fly on a plane? Or is this action acceptable because it is makes other passengers at ease?

Back from the Big Apple

My parents and I flew back to Kentucky today. My mom has put some of her New York photos online. Here is a photo looking towards the Brooklyn Bridge (Statue of Liberty is in the far distance) and one of us at Yankee Stadium:

The Onion

I knew that The Onion is an online satirical newspaper that leans a little bit to the left politically. What I didn't know is that there are newspaper stands all over New York City distributing the paper for free. The current paper has a headline poking fun at President Bush. I generally find the paper funny, even if I don't always agree with the political points it makes.

Boot Camp at NYU

Classes don't start until next week. So why am I at NYU now? Well, I'm attending an optional, free, "math boot camp" to review calculus, differentiation, integration, linear algebra, etc. The boot camp is meets 5 hours per day for 3 days. The two teachers leading the boot camp will be the two teachers who teach the two different sections of "Math for Economists" this fall. I thought one of the professors did a better job at explaining and was more logical in thought. After attending class today, I came home and switched sections!

This is Warren Weaver Hall, where the math boot camp is being held. Once the semester begins, however, I will not have any classes in this building.

This is the giant arch in Washington Square Park on NYU's campus.